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Alternative payments will account for an increasing percentage of U.S. online transactions by 2012, according to a recent study from Javelin Strategy and Research.
As I reported last week, Debit card online transaction volume will increase to $93.9 billion by 2012, up from $38.8 billion in 2007, accounting for about 26% of total U.S. online transactions, Javelin says. Online debit volume is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 19.3% through 2012.
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The growth in online use of debit cards is primarily attributable to the growth in debit card usage in general, although younger consumers are opting for debit cards as a primary online payment option, Javelin says. The emergence of rewards programs linked to signature debit may contribute to growth, according to the study.
Javelin also estimates that online volume from e-mail payment accounts, such as PayPal, will increase to $40 billion by 2012, up from $7.8 billion in 2007, and will represent 11% of total online transaction volume. E-mail account volume, dominated by PayPal, will have a compound annual growth rate of 38% through 2012. Javelin forecasts that the average PayPal transaction at a retail site will reach $40 in 2012, up from $32 in 2007.
Stored-value products—merchant-specific gift cards and network-branded products—will grow at a 43% compound annual growth rate to $32.1 billion in 2012 from $5.4 billion in 2007, Javelin estimates. Stored-value cards will account for about 9% of total U.S. online volume by 2012, propelled by increased growth in multi-channel usage of in-store programs.
In addition, online private label payment card transactions are expected to total $23.7 billion by 2012, up from $5.3 billion in 2007, representing 7% of total online U.S. transaction volume, Javelin says. Private-label transactions will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 35% through 2012.
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