By Tiernan Ray
Credit Suisse equity research analysts James Kissane and Moshe Orenbuch and colleagues today ponder the take-aways from a conference held last week by the bank to discuss the “future of payments,” by which they mean electronic and mobile payments.
Mobile payments are a roughly $500 billion opportunity, the conference participants believe, and a turf battle between existing transaction processors such as MasterCard (MA) and upstarts such as eBay‘s (EBAY) PayPal will be a big feature on the landscape.
Overall, it’s going to take time, write the authors:
Gating factors include: chicken and egg network phenomena; a compelling value proposition for merchants and consumers; business models and standards have to shakeout. There seemed to be a consensus that over the next 2-3 years we would start to see meaningful POS mobile payment volume.
Kissane and colleagues think Apple (AAPL) is a potential “game changer” in mobile payments, and write that all eyes are on the company’s next move. The company unveiled on Monday a forthcoming program for its iPhone called PassBook that will group coupons, loyalty cards, boarding passes and other consumer retail items that could be scanned for payment at a point of sale:
